Jon Fitch never knows what’s coming next.

Most professional athletes don’t like to look past their upcoming competition — Mike McCarthy isn’t answering Super Bowl questions right now — but when you ask Fitch where a win over Johny Hendricks at UFC 141 on Friday would put him in the currently Georges St. Pierre-less welterweight division he honestly has no idea.

“I don’t always get a lot of credit, but I keep plugging away and I keep winning fights,” Fitch said. Even over the phone his voice sounds beleaguered. He’s been answering questions about where he thinks he is in the division since he lost to GSP at UFC 87 in 2008. The answer hasn’t changed. He’s believes he’s number two, right behind the future UFC Hall of Famer.

Nate Diaz and Chael Sonnen have both had successful MMA careers by using their outspoken personalities to market themselves. Don’t expect that kind of strategy from Fitch anytime soon.

“Jon’s not flashy,” said former PRIDE fighter Tom Erikson, who coached Fitch during his wrestling days at Purdue. “People don’t want to hear about guys doing the right things.”

In fact, if you want someone to tell you about how underappreciated Fitch is in the UFC, the best person to talk to is anyone but Jon Fitch. The welterweight is quick to point out that Purdue doesn’t have the reputation of cranking out top fighters like it should. He’ll sign action figures at Purdue wrestling’s alumni golf tournament every year and passionately list guys like Stefan Bonner, Matt Hamill, Matt Mitrione, Miguel Torres, Nate Moore, Jake O’Brien and Chase Beebe — all of whom have Purdue ties — but thinks Purdue is under the radar because many of the fighters did wrestle. Erikson, who is still an assistant wrestling coach at Purdue, has a different theory.

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Former UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar (above) can earn another shot at the title with a victory Friday over Alistair Overeem. (AP)

SI.com analysts Ben Fowlkes, Loretta Hunt and Jeff Wagenheim provide their predictions for UFC 141 on Friday in Las Vegas.

Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem

FOWLKES: For all Overeem’s accomplishments, we’ve yet to see him shut down a powerhouse wrestler of Lesnar’s caliber. I have my doubts that he can stay off his back for long, and he won’t do well with those engine blocks that Lesnar calls fists raining down on him. Lesnar by TKO.

HUNT: One of the harder main events to handicap in quite some time. Both have had some circumstances to overcome, but I just can’t get past the rollercoaster camp Overeem has had in the last eight weeks. I’m banking on Lesnar playing it smart by only trading strikes with the K-1 champion to set up his takedowns. Lesnar by TKO. 

WAGENHEIM: I’ve ranked Overeem higher than Lesnar among heavyweights for a long time. So Alistair’s the pick here, right? Um, no. As the bout has crept up, I’ve had a nagging suspicion that when Overeem is taken down — and he will be, just like every Brock opponent has, including Cain Velasquez — the bulky striker won’t have what it takes to get back up. Lesnar by TKO.

Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone

FOWLKES: Diaz’s best chance is to submit Cerrone, but I don’t think he has it in his DNA to admit weakness and take a fight down if he’s getting beat on the feet. Cerrone’s the more diverse striker, and the better tactician. Cerrone by decision.

HUNT: Behind Jon Jones, Cerrone has had the second most memorable 2011 campaign. I think he’s figured out that if he comes out on fire, he’s unstoppable. I’m banking on that same mentality against the second Diaz brother. Cerrone by decision.

WAGENHEIM: Diaz has stepped up his game since returning to lightweight. But “The Cowboy” simply has too much game for him. Cerrone by TKO.

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As the year winds down, the most important of the remaining bouts for 2011 must be the heavyweight contenders’ fight between Brock Lesnar and Alistair Overeem at UFC 141. But due to a host of contributing factors, it’s one of the most difficult matchups ever to handicap heading into Friday’s main event at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.

Here are some of the factors to weigh when placing your bets on the UFC’s next No. 1 heavyweight contender, who will challenge reigning champion Junior dos Santos in 2012.

Style Matchup

Both have the tools to win. Overeem, a former Strikeforce and K-1 kickboxing champion, can outstrike Lesnar. But the 2001 NCAA Division I wrestling champ can ground Overeem and either hold him down or get a referee’s stoppage. This bout won’t be decided on style alone.

Advantage: Push

Extenuating Circumstances

This factor buoyed to the top of the list, given that both have faced challenging personal issues during their training camps. Only eight months ago, Lesnar had major surgery to cure recurring diverticulitis, where a 12-inch portion of his colon was removed and repaired according to UFC president Dana White. On top of that, Lesnar hasn’t fought in over a year and missed out on an entire year of crucial personal development, so time to acclimate back into training and ring rust are very real considerations. Sprinkle in recent hunting charges filed against Lesnar in Canada (Lesnar resolved the charges and paid a fine last week) and there’s been a lot of added media attention that Lesnar would deem unnecessary, annoying and time-consuming. However, Overeem already has Lesnar beat in this category with a laundry list of distractions. The 30-year-old Dutch fighter filed a lawsuit against his former Golden Glory management team in November in Los Angeles, had to move his training camp at least once during his Las Vegas stay, left for Holland in mid-November to tend to his ailing mother in cancer remission, and has had to submit to additional drug testing overseas and stateside (once he arrived back for the fight) to fulfill his licensing requirements with the Nevada State Athletic Commission. No fighter will ever admit that extenuating circumstances like these have affected them mentally until after the fight; they don’t want to show any chinks in the armor — but you can bet they’ve slowed down the physical preparation at the least.

Advantage: Lesnar

The Bully Factor

Lesnar and Overeem have one thing in common: they both know how to use their size and presence in the cage to their advantage. Either could take center canvas at the opening bell and begin imposing his will and preferred discipline on the other. Both perform better when they have strong starts, but also tend to wane when they can’t secure the upper hand. The faster either establishes his dominance, that much harder it will be for the other to come back.

Advantage: Push

Cardio

Overeem has flown from Holland to America and back again and switched gyms twice during his eight-week camp. Lesnar flew his coaching staff, including fellow UFC heavyweight kickboxer Pat Barry, to his private gym near his home and family in Alexandria, Minn., for one intensive camp in one remote, (hopefully) distraction-free location.

Advantage: Lesnar

I’ll reveal my pick in the writer predictions this week, but what do you think?

– Loretta Hunt