The meteoric rise of the UFC hit a pocket of turbulence Tuesday with the release of the ratings for Saturday’s UFC on Fox 3 card.

The May 5 telecast averaged 2.42 million viewers (for a household rating of 1.5), down from 5.7 million for UFC on Fox 1 and 4.7 million for UFC on Fox 2.

By comparison, the NASCAR Nationwide Series Aaron’s 312, which aired earlier in the day, outdrew it with a 2.0 rating. (And that’s not the highest series of racing in NASCAR). The Kentucky Derby drew a 9.0 overnight rating from 6 and 7 p.m. ET on NBC. It was narrowly beaten by the NHL Eastern Conference semifinal between the New York Rangers and Washington Capitals between 12:15 and 3:15 p.m, which posted a household rating of 1.6.

UFC on Fox 3 did earn a rating of 1.6 among 18-to-34-year-old men, its primary demographic, but that’s also down from the promotion’s first (4.3) and second (3.2) network-televised cards since it signed a seven-year multi-media rights agreement with Fox in August.

The main card of Saturday’s event at the Izod Center in East Rutherford, N.J., saw lightweight contender Nate Diaz submit Jim Miller. Johny Hendricks, Alan Belcher and Lavar Johnson also prevailed in nationally televised bouts.

UFC on Fox 3 faced competition from both an NBA playoff doubleheader on TNT and the undercard of the super welterweight championship fight between Floyd Mayweather and Miguel Cotto on HBO Pay-Per-View.

UFC on Fox 4 is scheduled for August 4 at Staples Center in Los Angeles (8 p.m. ET, Fox), with Hector Lombard-Brian Stann and Ryan Bader-Lyoto Machida among the headlining bouts.

– Bryan Armen Graham

Former UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar (above) can earn another shot at the title with a victory Friday over Alistair Overeem. (AP)

SI.com analysts Ben Fowlkes, Loretta Hunt and Jeff Wagenheim provide their predictions for UFC 141 on Friday in Las Vegas.

Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem

FOWLKES: For all Overeem’s accomplishments, we’ve yet to see him shut down a powerhouse wrestler of Lesnar’s caliber. I have my doubts that he can stay off his back for long, and he won’t do well with those engine blocks that Lesnar calls fists raining down on him. Lesnar by TKO.

HUNT: One of the harder main events to handicap in quite some time. Both have had some circumstances to overcome, but I just can’t get past the rollercoaster camp Overeem has had in the last eight weeks. I’m banking on Lesnar playing it smart by only trading strikes with the K-1 champion to set up his takedowns. Lesnar by TKO. 

WAGENHEIM: I’ve ranked Overeem higher than Lesnar among heavyweights for a long time. So Alistair’s the pick here, right? Um, no. As the bout has crept up, I’ve had a nagging suspicion that when Overeem is taken down — and he will be, just like every Brock opponent has, including Cain Velasquez — the bulky striker won’t have what it takes to get back up. Lesnar by TKO.

Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone

FOWLKES: Diaz’s best chance is to submit Cerrone, but I don’t think he has it in his DNA to admit weakness and take a fight down if he’s getting beat on the feet. Cerrone’s the more diverse striker, and the better tactician. Cerrone by decision.

HUNT: Behind Jon Jones, Cerrone has had the second most memorable 2011 campaign. I think he’s figured out that if he comes out on fire, he’s unstoppable. I’m banking on that same mentality against the second Diaz brother. Cerrone by decision.

WAGENHEIM: Diaz has stepped up his game since returning to lightweight. But “The Cowboy” simply has too much game for him. Cerrone by TKO.

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SI.com analysts Ben Fowlkes, Steven Marrocco, Jeff Wagenheim and Jon Wertheim provide their predictions for Saturday’s UFC heavyweight championship fight between Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos in Anaheim, Calif.

BEN FOWLKES

If Velasquez is just as quick and as sharp now as he was before his long layoff following shoulder surgery, he has all the necessary tools to beat Dos Santos. The Brazilian excels when he can stand on the outside and box, but if Velasquez succeeds at getting in his face and pushing him at a higher pace than he likes, it’s going to be very difficult for him to get comfortable. That is, of course, if Velasquez fights smart and resists the urge to get away from his strengths just so he can put on a show for the network audience. I think he’ll avoid that particular pitfall, and I think dos Santos will find out that it’s a different fight when a guy like Velasquez is right on top of you for every minute of every round. Velasquez by TKO.

STEVEN MARROCCO

Whatever disadvantage Cain brings into the fight with a year-plus layoff, he makes up in the ability to take Dos Santos down and gradually grind him down over 25 minutes. If he takes a punch, that’s just going to speed Dos Santos’ trip to the mat. If Dos Santos goes for the surprise and puts Cain on his back, it’s doubtful he’ll be able to keep the position. In all but one area of the fight, Velasquez has the advantage. Velasquez by TKO.

JEFF WAGENHEIM

Curious to see what the UFC and Fox, having committed to airing just this one fight, would do with the rest of the hour-long time slot, I’m almost rooting for a 10-second knockout. Almost. This clash is just too appealing to not want more and more — and I do expect to see more than a flash knockout. I foresee a little circling and stalking, then a few dangerously exhilarating exchanges, then a Velasquez takedown into ground control. Will Junior get up? If so, we’ll have a fight on our hands. Either way, I think Cain can do too much in too many positions for dos Santos to handle. Velasquez by TKO.

JON WERTHEIM

This has the potential to be a smashing network debut — a lively, multidemensional fight. Or a technical, stall-and-sprawl ground game special — “Wait, who’s doing what to who?” — that could confuse and turn off the casual fan. Obviously, if you root for the sport, you root for the former scenario. One of the best boxers in the UFC, JDS could score an early KO. But assuming Velasquez can avert danger and take the fight to the ground where his wrestling kicks in, I like him especially the longer the fight goes. Velasquez by decision.

Jon Jones (above) is favored in his first defense of the UFC light heavyweight championship against Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. (Greg Nelson/SI)

SI.com analysts Ben Fowlkes, Steven Marrocco, Jeff Wagenheim and Jon Wertheim provide their predictions for UFC 135 on Saturday in Denver.

Jon Jones vs. Quinton Jackson

FOWLKES: Jackson won’t even get within hooking distance of the faster, lankier Jones. If he lasts as long as Rua did before getting rolled up, I’ll be slightly amazed. Jones by TKO.

MARROCCO: Jones has three dimensions to Jackson’s two. Jackson fancies a knockout, but it’s doubtful he’ll ever get close enough to land. Jones by TKO. 

WAGENHEIM: “Rampage” trash talks a good game, but when the jawing stops and the jostling starts, “Bones” will have his say … and have his way. Jones by TKO.

WERTHEIM: Feels a bit like Evans-Tito (and Jones-Shogun): a versatile contender versus a thirtysomething name far from his prime. Jones is too young, versatile and athletic. Jones by TKO.

Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck

FOWLKES: I just don’t see what tools Hughes has to threaten Koscheck with at this point. He’ll get out-Hughes’d in what could very well be his final UFC fight. Koscheck by TKO.

MARROCCO: The urgency isn’t there for Hughes, and his speed and power are on the decline. Could be curtains on Saturday. Koscheck by TKO.

WAGENHEIM: Five years ago, fighting Hughes would have meant a long night for Kos. But at this point he should make short work of the past champ. Koscheck by TKO.

WERTHEIM: Long layoff for two veterans and wrestling-based fighters. Though coming on short notice, Koscheck is younger and faster. Koscheck by decision.

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