Frankie Edgar defends his lightweight title against Ben Henderson on Saturday at UFC 144 outside Tokyo. (Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC)

SI.com analysts Ben Fowlkes, Loretta Hunt, Jeff Wagenheim and Jon Wertheim provide their predictions for UFC 144 on Saturday in Japan.

Frankie Edgar vs. Ben Henderson

FOWLKES: Edgar’s giving up some size and strength to Henderson, but when you’re a 155-pounder who doesn’t cut weight, you’ve got to be used to that. Edgar’s speed and unpredictability rules the day in a close one. Edgar by decision.

HUNT: Edgar’s a solid champion with fast hands, but I’ve been waiting for Bendo to get his shot for a while. He has the physical strength, flexibility and scrambling superiority to outscore Edgar — it won’t be easy, but it’s doable. Henderson by decision. 

WAGENHEIM: Henderson has no quit in him, but I don’t think he’ll have an answer for “The Answer,” who is speedy, active and grappling-savvy enough to determine where the fight will be fought. Edgar by decision.

WERTHEIM: Edgar’s wrestling and cardio are top-shelf (if not peerless). He takes a punch and he fights smart. Hard to see Henderson cracking that code. Edgar by decision.

Quinton Jackson vs. Ryan Bader

FOWLKES: Bader’s chin is questionable and Jackson’s power isn’t. A chance to fight in Tokyo again should be all the motivation “Rampage” needs to take this seriously and get the job done. Jackson by TKO.

HUNT: Jackson lost his passion for the game a while ago. (Becoming an international movie star in The A-Team reboot can do that to you). However, he packs a meaner punch than Bader’s and can match wits in wrestling. Jackson should also get the jump start he needs back on Japanese soil, where his greatest days will come flooding back to him. Jackson by TKO.

WAGENHEIM: It’s a homecoming of sorts for “Rampage,” so he wants to put on a show. But Bader has a higher purpose motivating him: He’s loath to take another step backward. And if the wrestler needs to make this a not-so-entertaining 15 minutes to get the job done, so be it. Bader by decision.

WERTHEIM: Potential Fight of the Night. Which Rampage shows up? The aging veteran choked out by Jon Jones; or the savvy fighter who decisioned two good opponents before that? It says here the latter. Jackson by decision.
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SI.com analysts Ben Fowlkes, Steven Marrocco, Jeff Wagenheim and Jon Wertheim provide their predictions for Saturday’s UFC heavyweight championship fight between Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos in Anaheim, Calif.

BEN FOWLKES

If Velasquez is just as quick and as sharp now as he was before his long layoff following shoulder surgery, he has all the necessary tools to beat Dos Santos. The Brazilian excels when he can stand on the outside and box, but if Velasquez succeeds at getting in his face and pushing him at a higher pace than he likes, it’s going to be very difficult for him to get comfortable. That is, of course, if Velasquez fights smart and resists the urge to get away from his strengths just so he can put on a show for the network audience. I think he’ll avoid that particular pitfall, and I think dos Santos will find out that it’s a different fight when a guy like Velasquez is right on top of you for every minute of every round. Velasquez by TKO.

STEVEN MARROCCO

Whatever disadvantage Cain brings into the fight with a year-plus layoff, he makes up in the ability to take Dos Santos down and gradually grind him down over 25 minutes. If he takes a punch, that’s just going to speed Dos Santos’ trip to the mat. If Dos Santos goes for the surprise and puts Cain on his back, it’s doubtful he’ll be able to keep the position. In all but one area of the fight, Velasquez has the advantage. Velasquez by TKO.

JEFF WAGENHEIM

Curious to see what the UFC and Fox, having committed to airing just this one fight, would do with the rest of the hour-long time slot, I’m almost rooting for a 10-second knockout. Almost. This clash is just too appealing to not want more and more — and I do expect to see more than a flash knockout. I foresee a little circling and stalking, then a few dangerously exhilarating exchanges, then a Velasquez takedown into ground control. Will Junior get up? If so, we’ll have a fight on our hands. Either way, I think Cain can do too much in too many positions for dos Santos to handle. Velasquez by TKO.

JON WERTHEIM

This has the potential to be a smashing network debut — a lively, multidemensional fight. Or a technical, stall-and-sprawl ground game special — “Wait, who’s doing what to who?” — that could confuse and turn off the casual fan. Obviously, if you root for the sport, you root for the former scenario. One of the best boxers in the UFC, JDS could score an early KO. But assuming Velasquez can avert danger and take the fight to the ground where his wrestling kicks in, I like him especially the longer the fight goes. Velasquez by decision.

Jon Jones (above) made his first defense of the UFC light heavyweight title on Saturday, dispensing of Quinton Jackson. (Hector Acevedo/ZUMAPRESS.com)

As expected, 24-year-old phenom Jon Jones is still the man after UFC 135. In the first defense of his title, he beat an in-shape and motivated Quinton “Rampage” Jackson to keep his strap, six months after he throttled Mauricio “Shogun” Rua to become the youngest champ in the UFC’s modern era.

Like all of Jones’ fights in the octagon, the fight was one-sided. At no point was there imminent danger and at no point was Jackson able, as he’d hoped, to test the champ’s untested chin.

Jackson had posited Jones would crumble to exhaustion in later rounds. Instead, it was he who crumbled and quit, overwhelmed in the fourth by a relentless procession of kicks, punches, and elbows. He tapped to a choke in that championship frame. But it was an afterthought; he checked out at the end of the third when he started clock-watching.

So begins the Jon Jones era. Or does it? A crew like The Usual Suspects is just waiting to cut the kid from his perch and take his gold loot. So far, he’s given us no reason to believe he won’t parallel, and perhaps eclipse, the rise of welterweight champ Georges St-Pierre. There are significant threats, but at the moment, Jones’ 84-and-a-half-inch wingspan casts a long shadow over the division.

Let’s take a brief look at the murderer’s row:

Rashad Evans: The former champ, who’s next in line, is in his physical prime and has the speed to get inside and do damage with quick hands. With his wrestling, he could be the first person to put Jones on his back. Moreover, he could keep the champ there. It’s the foundation of Evans’ confidence leading into the yet-unscheduled bout, a do-over from a ill-fated meeting at UFC 133 that fractured the camp in which both trained. What happened under Greg Jackson’s roof when they sparred, before Evans accused Jones of betrayal and flew the coop, is a truth that will only be uncovered if walls talk. Evans says he made Jones quit. Jones says he could have handled Evans had he gone full speed. Training partners won’t break the code of silence endemic to MMA gyms, at least for now. So we’re left to what we’ve seen thus far from Evans. And if that’s any indication of the damage he could do to Jones, he could make things interesting.

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Jon Jones (above) is favored in his first defense of the UFC light heavyweight championship against Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. (Greg Nelson/SI)

SI.com analysts Ben Fowlkes, Steven Marrocco, Jeff Wagenheim and Jon Wertheim provide their predictions for UFC 135 on Saturday in Denver.

Jon Jones vs. Quinton Jackson

FOWLKES: Jackson won’t even get within hooking distance of the faster, lankier Jones. If he lasts as long as Rua did before getting rolled up, I’ll be slightly amazed. Jones by TKO.

MARROCCO: Jones has three dimensions to Jackson’s two. Jackson fancies a knockout, but it’s doubtful he’ll ever get close enough to land. Jones by TKO. 

WAGENHEIM: “Rampage” trash talks a good game, but when the jawing stops and the jostling starts, “Bones” will have his say … and have his way. Jones by TKO.

WERTHEIM: Feels a bit like Evans-Tito (and Jones-Shogun): a versatile contender versus a thirtysomething name far from his prime. Jones is too young, versatile and athletic. Jones by TKO.

Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck

FOWLKES: I just don’t see what tools Hughes has to threaten Koscheck with at this point. He’ll get out-Hughes’d in what could very well be his final UFC fight. Koscheck by TKO.

MARROCCO: The urgency isn’t there for Hughes, and his speed and power are on the decline. Could be curtains on Saturday. Koscheck by TKO.

WAGENHEIM: Five years ago, fighting Hughes would have meant a long night for Kos. But at this point he should make short work of the past champ. Koscheck by TKO.

WERTHEIM: Long layoff for two veterans and wrestling-based fighters. Though coming on short notice, Koscheck is younger and faster. Koscheck by decision.

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